Is it not true that the FedRes has committed to sell $600Bn of $2.5Trn in US treasuries starting December?
I thought I I saw something on it recently. If so, QE4 is not going to start any time before Jun/Jul2015 IMHO. Then it depends on the broader demand for UST's while FedRes offloads $600Bn. The US still runs a $500Bn p.a. trade deficit and the Federal Gov't runs a $500Bn p.a shortfall - so the US current account remains under pressure.
Just FYI - the last time the Fed sold $300Bn UST's was in 2008. So if things get a bit exciting I guess we'll know why.
Last tally on the notional value of OTC derivative from BIS was about $700Trn. A US swaps market said the figure is closer to $1,000Trn including shadow inventory. Given derivatives are super senior in the eyes of US law makers, the potential for another chaotic event remains alive and well.
To make matters interesting, Russia rolls into Ukraine with a column of tanks. War and inflation have been historically good for PM's since the 18th century.
