Ok.. so to expand on the discussion - here are some other key points you might want to consider. Your choice ofc. Each person has to form their own view on probabilities
1) revenue optionality has to factor opex - operating costs. Ie whatever portion of sales has to go to meet mining costs is your zero bound - effectively 0% earnings upside - so it doesnt matter what pays those costs. If half your silver output goes toward opex then your optionality from Ag upside is only 50%. ( you may use fewer ounces to meet opex as per oz price rises but generally not a linear tradeoff for pure silver's because of their need to forward sell to protect vs negative earnings)
Thats why i would use lead to pay those costs so the project gets maxiumum leverage. Thats one reason why your spreadsheet is potentially so misleading.
Bml (and adt?) could be the only one of all those companies to get 100% earnings leverage per unit increase in silver price
2) your lead price assumption is v conservative if you are projecting a 10+yr us50oz Ag price. While i dont know the ag/lead price correlation the charts suggest its a reasonable force and imply more than 10% upside on a 10yr basis
3) output assumptions. We know what bml and svl plan to output with a fair degree of confidence. We dont know that for any other project. Without that we can't really form any solid conclusions about earnings leverage.
Ivr put out some scope numbers but they were a long way from reliable imo.
4)economies of scale. This is a biggy imo. It used to be you could get up a dore operation fairly cheaply. It's what allowed small gold mines No more. And because of that i expect the capital intensity gap between say ivr and bml to be much less than in former times
and if throughput is also higher getting you cheaper per ounce output you burn less ounces on opex
ivr knows this which is why they are slow walking the project development work. V clever regarding mkt psychology is ivr
so again - this is a big impact on actual $earnings leverage per ounce of silver
=because of these factors, this is why market usually just goes on ev/oz, grade, resource size, nearness to surface and exploration upside for pre cashflows
at least until prices are so high project creations seems likely - or they are adt style tier ones that are so richly endowed they proceed despite market lulls etc
And why i wouldnt agree with most of your leverage conclusions...at least on what is visible at this stage
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