BML (ASX) Silver + lead

Originally posted by goldbear77: ↑

Ok.. so to expand on the discussion - here are some other key points you might want to consider. Your choice ofc. Each person has to form their own view on probabilities

1) revenue optionality has to factor opex - operating costs. Ie whatever portion of sales has to go to meet mining costs is your zero bound - effectively 0% earnings upside - so it doesnt matter what pays those costs. If half your silver output goes toward opex then your optionality from Ag upside is only 50%. ( you may use fewer ounces to meet opex as per oz price rises but generally not a linear tradeoff for pure silver's because of their need to forward sell to protect vs negative earnings)

Thats why i would use lead to pay those costs so the project gets maxiumum leverage. Thats one reason why your spreadsheet is potentially so misleading.
Bml (and adt?) could be the only one of all those companies to get 100% earnings leverage per unit increase in silver price

2) your lead price assumption is v conservative if you are projecting a 10+yr us50oz Ag price. While i dont know the ag/lead price correlation the charts suggest its a reasonable force and imply more than 10% upside on a 10yr basis

3) output assumptions. We know what bml and svl plan to output with a fair degree of confidence. We dont know that for any other project. Without that we can't really form any solid conclusions about earnings leverage.

Ivr put out some scope numbers but they were a long way from reliable imo.

4)economies of scale. This is a biggy imo. It used to be you could get up a dore operation fairly cheaply. It's what allowed small gold mines No more. And because of that i expect the capital intensity gap between say ivr and bml to be much less than in former times

and if throughput is also higher getting you cheaper per ounce output you burn less ounces on opex

ivr knows this which is why they are slow walking the project development work. V clever regarding mkt psychology is ivr

so again - this is a big impact on actual $earnings leverage per ounce of silver

=because of these factors, this is why market usually just goes on ev/oz, grade, resource size, nearness to surface and exploration upside for pre cashflows

at least until prices are so high project creations seems likely - or they are adt style tier ones that are so richly endowed they proceed despite market lulls etc

And why i wouldnt agree with most of your leverage conclusions...at least on what is visible at this stage

Expand

BML have tried to change the messaging by showing they will be in the 1st quartile for costs when it comes to being a low cost lead producer as highlighted by consultants report and therefore being able to message the lead will cover all the costs and also at current prices deliver profits and the 2.2 million ozs of silver will be produced for free.
To date the market has taken no notice and the company needs to greatly improve it's messaging capabilities so investors are made aware of how much profit can be generated at Sorby Hills from each dollar rise in the silver price and goldbear has eloquently pointed this out.

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.110	32424	1
0.115	325000	2
0.120	445737	4
0.125	70000	2
0.130	259523	2

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259523

(20min delay)
Last 10.0¢		Change -0.005(4.76%)		Mkt cap ! $23.33M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
11.0¢	11.0¢	10.0¢	$46.42K	434.9K

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Silver + lead, page-26

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