Wanted to start a new thread to get away from my confusion surrounding the previous one...
1)AGS has 278m shares on issue as per the commsec site..( Have they been diluted further in the recent SPP ) 2)they have a stated reserve of 61mil lbs/4 = 15.25 mil lbs. 3)Spot price is not the way sales of u308 go(in my knowledge) utilities use long term contracts ..From what I read( from commentators) it is around the 75usd mark at this stage ..though these are transactions between private parties and are not in the public domain 4) Assuming extraction costs of 30 usd... gross margins are $45 usd per lb 5)$45 x 15.25 = $686.25 mil gross revenue 6)Assuming less 30% tax earnings = $480.37 mil USD 7)$480.37 / 278 mil shares = $1.72 Usd per share. 8) assumptions - only 278 m shares,longterm prices at 75usd and extraction costs at 30usd.
So saying that AGS is fully valued at 60 - 80 cents I think reflects too negative a view...As other posters have stated the U308 grades play a major part and AGS has some fantastic ones. License to thrill - tick has been given last week... drilling programs still on going...Macro economics - Will U308 prices stay the same for the entire mine life of at least 20 years? I would be surprised if they do...( definitely the window of opportunity be4 Olympic dam gets on full swing is closing soon and thats where AGS has a head start..)Are there new plants being built around the world..last i heard was YES...So let us take a wager on where AGS SP will be one year from now...My .02 is it will be higher. To the non holders who have taken the trouble for playing the D/advocate role ...thanks..we LT holders ( me for sure) believe AGS is a good investment not necesarily the best in the whole world but one which will (hopefully) get us good returns in the future....but markets always exist becos there are different views...non?!!!.. views and thoughts appreciated...rgds P.s and as to the reason why BB are not making an offer? could be as simple as a lack of liquidity...doesn't matter if they are rich enough to buy the whole of USA (not that its worth a lot now :) )
AGS Price at posting:
85.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
