Arafura, in the short term your worst case scenarios may well be...

Arafura, in the short term your worst case scenarios may well be true; probably not but possible.
Of course that scenario wouldn't support a strong price for Lynas.
But there are several signs that the current situation is a market bottom. Look at metal pages: all the important (to Lynas) REE oxide prices have turned up: Chinese suppliers are refusimg to sell at the offered prices.
Why? It's reasonable to assume that they make a loss at those prices.
Yes it's Chinese prices that have improved for now, but who'd be willing to argue that this won't percolate through to FOB in the next few weeks?
Modest profit at the bottom of the current cycle, good (or excellent) profits after the upturn consolidates.