Read 62strats post re previous high volume in 2008 (original 11.6 Billion barrel presentation) . Difference this time is that the shareprice is more than half the price with approximately the same amount of shares, and NDO has approx 10000 bopd production now .
Much better to be buying masses now than in 2008 .
The recent rise has been pretty much the same dynamic everyday with big buys and big sells, bulls and bears of substance . There is obviously a change of top 20 guard occuring and I have a sneaky feeling that the big buyer may be lining NDO up in it's cross hairs for corporate action - at minimum a controlling stake. I also wouldn't put it past a predator to buy a swathe of shares and then use some to supress the shareprice and traders . Possibly the reason the VWAP on a few days recently has been higher than the closing price .
Obviously, NDO has been playing hardball in farmout negotiations (justifiably, imo) and whoever Morgan Stanley represents may be a corporate predator I refer to .
Short term shareprice is anyone's guess, but I doubt whether the shareprice will slip back into it's old range . The volume today was 'out of the stadium' and whilst many of us here want the longterm gain ..... we may not get a say in it as those who may once have blocked a takeover in nDO maybe selling willingly .
The director buying at today's premium is very encouraging that everything he knows on the "inside" is as we would desire, as investors on the outside .
So, if I am right and NDO may be a near term corporate target, who could it be taking a shot ? CNOOC ? (near market Asian operator) Shell ? (knows the fields and country) BHP? (has been doing DD on OEL) Exxon ? (has recently made a large local discovery)
My hunch is Exxon .
NDO Price at posting:
20.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
