lets assume that they manage to expand output to 20,000 tonnes per annum
lets assume avg nickel price over next few years at $15,000US and exchange rate 75USD for 1 aussie
20,000 * 15,000 * 1.33 (exchange rate in AUD/US) = $400 mill in revenue per annum
Net profit margin is around the usual 0.3
number of shares approx 130mill
EPS (based on 15,000 USD per tonne Ni price) is:
400mill revenue * 0.3 / 130mill = 0.923 cents per share
there you go, thats why guys like macquarie are saying a ball park figure around $9 per share if you give a P/E of around 10ish
Note this is very simplistic valuation though and is not the traditional DCF using a discount rate and then adding on 'exploration potential'.
Given the special nature of the land that harmanis has been harping on about , its is quite probable that reserves will be increased to the pt where they WILL BE ABLE to produce 20,000 tonnes per annum for a number of years.
In this case the figures above suggest a $9+ valuation plus the high divvys as usual.
If we use a higher nickel price than 15,000 (its around 20,000 now), do the maths (!!!!) although 15,000 US/tonne is a fair estimate over the next few yrs.
Hey im not an analyst, so dont take my figures too seriously - its just a simplistic look at valuation, but brings the pt across
adios
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- JBM
- simple valuation example
JBM
jubilee mines nl
simple valuation example
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 3 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)