1MC 14.3% 0.3¢ morella corporation limited

My excel spreadsheet currently has AJM valued at between 0.38...

  1. 90 Posts.
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    My excel spreadsheet currently has AJM valued at between 0.38 and 1.02, depending on the assumptions used. The "good case" below is based on AJM's published announcements, while the "bad case" is skeptically assuming not everything will go do plan. Either way, AJM is a strong buy.

    These share prices are based on P/Es of 9 and 11, which I'm sure you will agree is conservative.

    Feedback very welcome. I'm always up for improving my excel spreadsheets.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
    1



    bad case good case
    2 cost to produce per Tonne (AU) 347.6 316
    3 yearly production estimate 175200 219000
    4 price (USD) 750 950
    5 AUD/USD 0.79 0.79
    6 Capital costs AU $132,000,000.0 $110,000,000
    7 Annual interest (15%) $19,800,000 $16,500,000
    8 Other long term debt $17,000,000 $17,000,000
    9 Long term debt repayments (10%) $1,700,000.0 $1,700,000.0
    10 estimated profit AU 83,929,594 175,950,430
    11 Number of years to complete 1.2 0.8
    12 Discount per year 16% 15%
    13 Adjusted profit AU $67,318,433 $154,185,603
    14 P/E 9 11
    15 market cap 605,865,894 1,696,041,635
    16 Cash 30,000,000 37,000,000
    17 Interprise value 635,865,894 1,733,041,635
    18 Share options 77,000,000 77,000,000
    19 Number of shares 1,614,322,513 1,614,322,513
    20 fair value share price $0.38 $1.02
    Last edited by bgbuc1: 02/09/17
 
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