LYC 0.58% $6.88 lynas rare earths limited

simplest math

  1. 927 Posts.
    Today basekt-price: 62 US$/kg
    Costs per kg: 8 US$/kg
    normal PER: 10
    actually MC: ca. 2 Billion US$
    ============================================
    a) If the price holds 62US$/kg
    b) If the price go down 50% (to 31US$/kg)
    c) If the price doubles (to 124 US$/kg)
    ============================================
    2011:
    -----
    half year 11.000t REO-production = 5.500t
    a)5.500 * 62.000-8.000 = 297 Mio. US$/YEAR!
    b)5.500 * 31.000-8.000 = 127 Mio. US$/YEAR!
    c)5.500 * 124.000-8.000 = 638 Mio. US$/YEAR!

    2012:
    -----
    full year 11.000t REO REO-production - this means double of the numbers in 2011:
    a) 297 Mio. * 2 = 594 Mio. US$/YEAR!
    b) 127 Mio. * 2 = 254 Mio US$/YEAR!
    c) 638 Mio. * 2 = 1.276 Mio. US$/YEAR!

    2013:
    -----
    full year 22.000t REO-production - this means double of the numbers in 2012:

    a) 594 Mio. * 2 = 1.188 Mio. US$/YEAR!
    b) 254 Mio. * 2 = 508 Mio US$/YEAR!
    c) 1.276 Mio. * 2 = 2.552 Mio. US$/YEAR!

    This means for PER:
    ===================
    2011:
    -----
    a) a PER of 7
    b) a PER of 16
    c) a PER of 3

    2012:
    -----
    a) a PER of 3
    b) a PER of 8
    c) a PER of 2

    2012:
    -----
    a) a PER of 2
    b) a PER of 4
    c) a PER of 1

    My personal goal for 2012: 14 AUD
    Do your own research!
 
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