Hypothetically writing, not investment advice, just some morning...

Hypothetically writing, not investment advice, just some morning ramblings.

Shell were issued 14,056,468 shares on 30/10/2011. They had an agreement not to dispose of the shares until 30/6/2012.

Apart from market sentiment at the moment, Northern Hemisphere going into Summer, lower Gas price, no production for DTE till 2013, shorting DTE could force Shell to consider not selling their shares short term or could this be considered an overhang, thus risking he options issued below.

9,759,601 with exercise constraint of Shares trading above .99 cents for 5 days 31/3/2014 exercise 59.1 cents
5,492,357 with exercise constraint of Shares trading above $1.30 for 5 days until 31/3/2014 exercise 59.1 cents

They may sell them to a shorter, to close their shorts. especially if it is a higher price than the market.

Why

Since, Jan, Feb and Mar had about 4.2 Million Shares shorted. April alone had 7.6 Million Shorts. Currently May has 4.7 Million. Current total is 21 Million shorts. How much do you think Shell may want for it's 14 Million Shares ?

Now the options have a time to go, there is approx 80 Million in the bank with 100 odd million debt facility with HSBC.


Current situation is exacerbated, by Europe, lower gas price(summer Northern Hemisphere) and the shorting. I am looking for an entry price.

Alternatively some bumper announcements would be nice or something from left field ie: issue options to current share holders, and instigate a share buyback, if market price declines further.