pkc111,The futures are now sliding along the bottom of the...

pkc111,

The futures are now sliding along the bottom of the channel, which slopes downward. So if they keep doing this they'll creep down slowly. Or they might decide to go sideways for a while or the bulls may try to rally back to retest the moving average (which it looks like they are trying to do now - and the bears will let them do so so they become less oversold - then they'll crunch them again at the moving average. So don't get too excited if the futures numbers become smaller soon).

Third tests have a high probability of a break. So with (say) -400 momentum behind them when they open it looks pretty certain.

IMO its unlikely that they'll attempt to break below the channel until the Dow actually opens: 1. they'll wait for the physical market for direction, 2. they won't want to go too far below the Dow's low last night so there's no gap, and 3. they won't want to go below the lower bollinger - they'll just want this to creep down to give the breakdown more room to move without hitting the bollinger, and 4. they may try to run off a bit of the oversold condition on the hourly

The best hope for the bulls would be to get the fall over and done with as quick as possible. ie. Futures and Europe breakdown 10% before Dow opens, Dow big gap down and collapse then time to get in a huge rally before the close.
But as per above IMO the bears won't be that silly.

Also, I can't see a rally tonight as XAO, Asia etc haven't completed their drops yet. So Dow would wait until Monday to rally IMO.