$7.65 could see them get their 49.9%1/2 a cake is better than no...

$7.65 could see them get their 49.9%

1/2 a cake is better than no cake at all.

49.9% will give them control.

BUT 1/2 the ore, 1/2 the infra is already owned by mitsu. Is it possible for sino and mitsu to continue the current partnership arrangement? Unlikely but possible.

The BIG question is will Mitsu make a counter bid? I suspect they will and will also get approval for 49.9%

Sino will now have to accumulate large amounts quickly to get to 19.9% being the take over trigger. Then its a matter of making an offer that suits Harbinger, Posco, and management to get up to 49.9%.

It is also possible that sino could go to 100% of mmx if it agreed to divest the infrastructure.

What is mmx worth : -

cash: 165 mill

ore: 1 billion maybe but who really knows - based on the mmx/mitsu deal this is a realistic figure.

ownership of infrastructure: guessing at 1 billion maybe more - not sure

total: 2.165 billion perhaps

With 420 million mmx shares that makes my back of envelope calculation to be about $5.15 as a 1st offer.

Add another $2.50 as a t/o premium [wishful thinking but possible] and you get to $7.65