"Today Google grabs much Internet traffic, and Microsoft represents the bulk of PC software sales. Out of a million submitted manuscripts, a handful account for the bulk of book sales. One percent of the U.S. population earns close to 90 times what the bottom 20% does, and half the capitalization of the stock market (close to 10,000 companies) is in fewer than 100 corporations.
In other words, we live in a world of winner-take-all extreme concentration. Similarly, a very small number of days accounts for the bulk of stock market movements: Just ten trading days can represent half the returns of a decade.
The economic world is driven primarily by random jumps. Yet the common tools of finance were designed for random walks in which the market always moves in baby steps. Despite increasing empirical evidence that concentration and jumps better characterize market reality, the reliance on the random walk, the bell-shaped curve, and their spawn of alphas and betas is accelerating, widening a tragic gap between reality and the standard tools of financial measurement. "
Markets Jump... 10 days can make up half the returns of a decade ( and what if you missed the best 10 days only ? and not just the biggest 10 )
Stocks like SSI ? Well who missed the jump and who was on board ?
What Do jumps occur from ( hint ! )
Ok moves spike and cluster... and are found in the few
outstanding !
"First, diversify as broadly as you can--far more than the supposed experts tell you now. This isn't just a matter of avoiding losses: Long-run market returns are dominated by a small number of investments, hence the risk of missing them must be mitigated by investing as broadly as possible."
Now We all saw the BRW article ??
We all read the address from the AGM ???
We all know the technical position ????
( Yes that was the hint ! )
Could a jump occur again ? From the structure now and the news heralded ?
I hold and the AGM address makes that holding tighter
Who else ?? already let go ? about to get in ?
GCN ? gets a good mention....
No certainties ....My view and right NOW !
In any case those statistics are something to consider in our investment practise ..
Who else thinks so ? anyone ?
1,378% not good enough
Amazing what gets discussed on HC more Amazing what does not ?
In any case time will tell HC members must always be carefull
Angry will tell Us We dont have a profit until We sell.. And before that anything can happen..
But that is the mkt for you.... And you have to be in it to win it..
full text at http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/fortune.pdf
Good Fortune to the fair and true
motorway
Chairman's Address for the 2005 AGM – 25 November 2005
Ladies and Gentlemen
I am pleased to be chairing my first Sino Strategic International ("SSI") AGM today.
Shareholders have witnessed a transformation of SSI in the past 6 months. Due to this
transformation, our share price experienced the best performance on the ASX in the
year to June 30 2005, having gone up by 1,378%.
SSI is currently pre-positioning itself in the marketplace so that, in the near future, it
will be able to take advantage of a number of new opportunities as they arise. We have
already commenced the establishment of a retail franchise gaming distribution
network along similar line to the gaming business model successfully used in
Australia.
New technology is changing the gaming industry internationally. It is therefore
important that, in addition to the retail network, we will established a number of
additional distribution channels as they become available, including mobile phones,
the Internet, cable television, and digital TV. These additional distribution channels
will allow us to reach up to 500 million prospective customers in the People's
Republic of China ("PRC") very cost efficiently and profitably. The feasibility studies,
and in some cases trial, for each of these additional distribution channels, is well
advanced and we intend to make further announcements in the coming months as we
advance to the implementation phase.
SSI has positioned itself to become the largest corporate player in the welfare gaming
industry of the PRC. The PRC gaming industry is in the emerging phase. However, it
is already a significant industry with lottery sales revenue alone of over US$5 billion
estimated for 2005. Keno has been introduced into the Chinese market, starting with
Beijing and Shanghai since September this year. By 2008, we estimate that total
gaming expenditure in China will exceed US$50 billion, ranking it amongst one of the
largest gaming markets in the world, and will be almost 10 times bigger than that of
the current Las Vegas Strip or Macau revenue. It is and will increasingly be a gaming
market that corporate and institutional investors cannot ignore. By 2008, SSI targets
to capture at least 25% of the national gaming market in China.
It is in this very exciting market that SSI has secured its first mover advantage. SSI
has secured a substantial share of the gaming distribution permits in Keno and Lotto
in the city of Shanghai, a city with a population bigger than Australia. SSI is already
working on a number of strategies to expand our gaming business nationwide. Our
nationwide expansion will include securing gaming POSs in a number of provinces
outside of Shanghai. Both SSI and its subsidiary GoConnect Ltd ("GCN") are working
closely and seeking to establish online and mobile gaming in the PRC.
SSI has a very busy business agenda over the next 12 months both here in Australia
and in China. SSI already has an office in Melbourne for many years. It now also has
offices in Hong Kong and Shanghai from where we conduct our Chinese business.
Our Shanghai office already has over 20 staff responsible for establishing our gaming
business. By the next AGM, I believe our nationwide expansion program will become
visible and you will see a well-defined strategy for SSI to become the biggest gaming
company in China. I thank you for your attendance today.
Teddy Cheng
25 November 2005
SSI Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
