sinochem could offer between a$12 and a$15, page-39

Rob, I understand your point on the high P/E implied by the current share price, but you have to understand that Sinochem was a state owned enterprise in China, and the Chinese aren't viewing the acquisition primarily as a short-term return.

For the Chinese, the acquisition is mainly about providing a guaranteed source of cheap agricultural chemicals for their own internal agricultural growth, and second in order to create a compelling agricultural export business. I calculated that at $14 / share, the earnings yield against enterprise value is about 3.9%, and for EBITDA it would be much higher. Compare that against what the Chinese get on Treasuries and it's similar. But with Nufarm they get growth on the dividend and satisfy some strategic objectives.

I calculated that Sinochem can only afford about a $11.50 offer assuming they were using 10 year paper to finance. But again they are in bed with the Chinese government, and the Chinese have $2T+ USD of reserves, so I'm sure they will get whatever financing they need to make the deal work.

What we cannot predict of course is what Nufarm wants to sell out. If Nufarm wants $20/share, then obviously it's going to fail, unless we get another bidder.

I understand your point that this trade at $11 is $2 up and $2 down, and I don't blame you for being on the sidelines. But given the history with the Chinese on the first bid, I'm expecting a better result in round 2.