Always value your comments. Your thoughts on SIQ echo mine. I've...

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CASPERBAK

260 Posts.

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24/11/22

08:22

Post #: 64954603
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Originally posted by noomxx: ↑

thats been my logic as to holding SIQ as well. And the business model seems to stack up when looking at the historical financials.

The headache is the degree to which these macro issues will continue to wash through the business. The reality is that 2HCY2022 is worse than 1HCY22 which is worse than CY2021. So we are still seeing deterioration through the business.

Having said this, the share price is also dropping, so the key is to estimate in my opinion both the deterioration of business profits against decline in share price and guestimate bottom of the cycle earnings.

I topped up a bit today based on the large share price, but couldn't top up largely given the risk of further deterioration could still occur (there is no current sign that profits will go up in the future).

I guess we will have to wait for Feb/March next year to see if there are any signs of an improvement.

The good news at a price of around $4.50, the share price represents around 10-11 times depressed earnings which is cheap for a company of this quality (assuming profits don't decline much further)

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Always value your comments. Your thoughts on SIQ echo mine. I've bought a few tranches on the way down including some at $4.50 yesterday. 1.5% of portfolio atm, max 2% in view of the unknown and potential for more disappointment. On some shares I've bought, I think the bad news is priced in enough, but in this market, it seems there's not many other buyers who share that view.

SIQ Price at posting: $4.75 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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