MBN 0.00% 8.3¢ mirabela nickel limited

SIR Takeover Bullish for MBN

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    IGO Takeover of SIR
    Today IGO launched a $1.8B takeover of Ni darling SIR at 4.38 cash 52c script 3.86 bid, SIR LTHs who were waiting on 7 Qs of -$33M cashburn and cash losses likely to sell out on market like Creasy their largest holder who makes an easy $600M cashexit a few days after his shares go out of escrow.

    If IGO values SIR at $1.8B for its future Ni production & unbuilt infrastructure in 2017 which MBN is producing and has right now in May 2015, what is MBN really worth according to this valuation parameter? At least $2B AUS which is a 16 bagger?

    MBN has the production now has had the infrastructure since 2010 and has upgraded production and infrastructure in a massive site with a 16 year mine life, SIR has a 8 year mine life and less infrastructure and no current mill or any current production. MBN has all that and more.

    If SIR is worth $1.8B then MBN is worth $2B! thast $2.20 SP, am i dreaming? or is this comparison appropriate.

    This takeover is relevant to MBN in that:-
    - 20KTpa Ni production (in 2017) with a 1.5MTpa ore mill valued by IGO at $1.8B forget MBNs $120M
    - massive undervaluation of MBN MC by a 14 bagger
    - Large holders like Creasy will sell out for a large profit payday (like a $600M profit)
    - large LTHs like US NH will not sell out for a -$430M loss on market now
    - Ni industry consolidation is starting up at low NPs, this is the time to do it for cashed up acquirers
    - SIR LTHs will also cash out of SIR stock and into other cheap NI stocks like MBN
    - SIR holders will move to ramp up new SIRlike stocks esp if NP starts rising as predicted by many & Stevenson in his N3 Eclipse event starting in June 2015 ending Dec 2016
    - IGO will take the 2 year cashburn with them to build the Nova deposit plus SIR $200M cash & $450M debt facility
    - SIR CEO MBennet and Ni Legend Rob Dennis look like out of jobs at SIR
    - former MBN CEO Nick Poll takes job at CAD in deal with POSs Silver Swan high grade mine
    - a new entity S2 with gold assets will be run by their CEO
    - R Dennis has taken shares and directorship at POS, now gets free cash from his SIR shares as well
    - MBN is entirely insulated from a takeover play by US NHs DOCA terms and their 95% holdings at a breakeven point of 50c, any bidder would have to go at 50c to have any chance, a bidder at 20c would likely mop up short held 20M shares only but it would shake things up in MBN
    - By January MBN could become a large acquirer of Brazil smelters, refineries or other cheap Ni stocks due to balance sheet and cash at bank strength

    If i was an acquirer, i would look at current production, current infrastructure and mine life, MBN has all of that much better than SIR can ever dream of.
    MBN would be a good vertical integration fit for a chinese Ni offtake buyer like Tsingshanm Dongfeng or Jinchuan but its not for sale at 13c maybe at 50c. If Creasy cashes out at a $600M profit why wouldnt the yanks want to do the same at $2.20SP at $2B also? Will the yanks take a measly 50c after all they went though?

    We LTHs on here clearly wont sell cheap. Am i wrong or is IGO valuing SIR too much or is MBN undervalued on this deal by a 16 bagger?
 
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