IGO Takeover of SIR
Today IGO launched a $1.8B takeover of Ni darling SIR at 4.38 cash 52c script 3.86 bid, SIR LTHs who were waiting on 7 Qs of -$33M cashburn and cash losses likely to sell out on market like Creasy their largest holder who makes an easy $600M cashexit a few days after his shares go out of escrow.
If IGO values SIR at $1.8B for its future Ni production & unbuilt infrastructure in 2017 which MBN is producing and has right now in May 2015, what is MBN really worth according to this valuation parameter? At least $2B AUS which is a 16 bagger?
MBN has the production now has had the infrastructure since 2010 and has upgraded production and infrastructure in a massive site with a 16 year mine life, SIR has a 8 year mine life and less infrastructure and no current mill or any current production. MBN has all that and more.
If SIR is worth $1.8B then MBN is worth $2B! thast $2.20 SP, am i dreaming? or is this comparison appropriate.
This takeover is relevant to MBN in that:-
- 20KTpa Ni production (in 2017) with a 1.5MTpa ore mill valued by IGO at $1.8B forget MBNs $120M
- massive undervaluation of MBN MC by a 14 bagger
- Large holders like Creasy will sell out for a large profit payday (like a $600M profit)
- large LTHs like US NH will not sell out for a -$430M loss on market now
- Ni industry consolidation is starting up at low NPs, this is the time to do it for cashed up acquirers
- SIR LTHs will also cash out of SIR stock and into other cheap NI stocks like MBN
- SIR holders will move to ramp up new SIRlike stocks esp if NP starts rising as predicted by many & Stevenson in his N3 Eclipse event starting in June 2015 ending Dec 2016
- IGO will take the 2 year cashburn with them to build the Nova deposit plus SIR $200M cash & $450M debt facility
- SIR CEO MBennet and Ni Legend Rob Dennis look like out of jobs at SIR
- former MBN CEO Nick Poll takes job at CAD in deal with POSs Silver Swan high grade mine
- a new entity S2 with gold assets will be run by their CEO
- R Dennis has taken shares and directorship at POS, now gets free cash from his SIR shares as well
- MBN is entirely insulated from a takeover play by US NHs DOCA terms and their 95% holdings at a breakeven point of 50c, any bidder would have to go at 50c to have any chance, a bidder at 20c would likely mop up short held 20M shares only but it would shake things up in MBN
- By January MBN could become a large acquirer of Brazil smelters, refineries or other cheap Ni stocks due to balance sheet and cash at bank strength
If i was an acquirer, i would look at current production, current infrastructure and mine life, MBN has all of that much better than SIR can ever dream of.
MBN would be a good vertical integration fit for a chinese Ni offtake buyer like Tsingshanm Dongfeng or Jinchuan but its not for sale at 13c maybe at 50c. If Creasy cashes out at a $600M profit why wouldnt the yanks want to do the same at $2.20SP at $2B also? Will the yanks take a measly 50c after all they went though?
We LTHs on here clearly wont sell cheap. Am i wrong or is IGO valuing SIR too much or is MBN undervalued on this deal by a 16 bagger?
MBN Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
