I agree. Markets top when every sucker is in, when every neighbour, postman and his dogs cousin is buying shares in something obscure that no one understands (graphite? Ha). That isn't happening. Many are still suspect about markets and there is a fair amount of trepidation when it comes to investing in stocks. The low VIX might suggest otherwise, but the vix represents volatility in the market. It doesn't factor in how the general public feels about stocks. Out of my 35+ team at an engineering firm, I am one of the few who want to play the markets. When 70% of those are throwing money in, I'll start selling.
I'm not saying a large correction is far away, I actually think we are close to one, but a top? Nah, there is too much fear in the world, fear might I add that markets are shrugging off and buying. The market needs things to worry about to climb higher.
How many 'crises' have US and world markets had in the last couple of years and where is the SP500? Record highs.
I'll be waiting for euphoria before I call a top, and last time I checked, things aren't too euphoric out there right now.
Cm
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