I think it's periods like this where you just have to buckle down and look 6 months + ahead.
Are the fundamentals still in place?
Lithium Price - tick
On Schedule + Budget - tick, as confirmed last week in the Webinar
Demand - tick, lost count of the number of giga-factories under construction, new EVs on the market etc
We're heading into the Chinese New Year (early this year Jan 22) which is traditionally the quietest time.
The last time this happened was the beginning of June with the GS downgrade, that coincided with the Chinese talking down lithium demand, just as they're doing now. Surprisingly (not) the end of June & the end of December is when the contract prices are reset for the next 6 months. PLS have said they expect $6300 at current prices, if they can push the market down another couple of hundred dollars - that's worth a fortune in savings to the battery manufacturers etc.
The short sellers jump onto the bandwagon and with slightly softer Li prices push down the stocks. This is apparent in the bigger companies like PLS, LTR who have large institutional holders like State Street, Blackrock etc, these institutions lend out their shares to the shorters. We just get dragged along by this sell down.
Just like last June, it will all bounce back, the shorts will need to cover and we'll be kicking ourselves that we didn't top up at these low prices when clearly the fundamentals are still in place.
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