situation update

The Rights Issue offer documents came out this morning, and now it seems like everyone is jumping at shadows and trying to find hidden meanings in every word. I've seen no discussion of the more interesting new facts, such as Michael Stork taking up 10m rights and not the 40m he is entitled to. C'mon conspiracy theorists, tell us that's because he 'knows' the results aren't good! Never mind he is contributing a further $500k in an already substantial investment. It also means there's at least 30m shares up for grabs at 5 cents!

The share price is weak, I know many are obviously deciding that selling at 5.7 and buying at 5 is a pretty good trade, and I don't disagree, I'm tempted to do the same thing, dump some stock, walk the last nervous holders off the cliff and then buy up big in the top up offer at 5 cents! What has changed from when the rights issue was announced and TERP was 7 cents plus? Nothing except sentiment! Yesterday someone bought millions of shares at up to 6.6 cents, and now holders are panicking and crossing a 0.2 cent spread to sell at 5.6-5.7?! Bizarre patterns when you look at course of sales, exacerbated by illiquidity.

Given all the discussion re. the 4th cohort, if you're a shareholder why not call/email the company and ask for clarification? They've been pretty responsive so far. In terms of what has actually been said, I think the most relevant recent announcement is the presentation to the BBY Life Sciences Conference, where slide 9 clearly states 'Currently in 4th (final) dosing cohort'. Nothing has changed that I can see, as per previous results they will report preliminary data on completion with full and final report due 1Q14. Are they trying to 'prop up' the share price during the rights issue? Quite frankly I don't see why they would need to?! The interest from Onyx/Amgen is a far more valuable indicator to me than a few HC shareholders who are upset they didn't see an easy 100% return in a week.

Where will the share price go from here? Who knows! If it trades through the offer price then I expect take up to be quite limited, which I believe will result in management placing the leftover shares to a few large holders and still raising the capital. I'm more than happy for people to sell out now and push the price down now, so long as those same people don't complain again if it trades back up after the rights issue, 4th cohort and/or Onyx arrangement clarification!!

For those with a longer term view, I think the best thing to do is take up your rights and not watch the SP everyday. That's my 2 cents, for what little it's worth! DYOR, don't just follow the herd, and GLTA.

Cheers,
Zaskar