@madamswer .."But I don't for a minute buy your social distancing argument is what has kept the case number low"
By itself, I agree No. However coupled with the information about most cases being imported, it does make sense from a very small base.
The community spread has been a far lower number than imported cases, so is starting off from a much lower base. It is only from around now on/next week we get to see the community spread without the effect of imported cases and their contacts.
If you divide the numbers here in Australia into those 2 groups, imported and community, then the community spread is still very low, but could be spreading exponentially, I don't know because I don't have that data, but at around 500 cases of local acquisition, the number and rate is still low (luckily).
Do you have a source of information on local acquisition only over time? The graph here is current total cases divided by source only.
