** I should add that the other reason Australia has down well in...

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Just_a_guy

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05/04/20

17:11

Post #: 43889985
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Originally posted by Just_a_guy: ↑

I'm not sure how easy it is to model, or work through with excel, but the way I'm thinking about it is in terms of the R0 value. Clearly this is the crucial variable.

My inclination is that the R0 for an asymptomatic patient is likely to be low. Pre lockdown this might have been ~1.5, and post lockdown it's likely dropped to ~0.5.

The r0 value for a symptomatic mobile patient pre Covid concern might have been as high as 10 or even 15. This likely dropped to 5 once the world got wind of avoiding people with a fever/respiratory symptoms. This then dropped to maybe 2 with a rapid test and trace campaign*, and now down to less than 1, with these measures and a total lockdown. If we look at the time frame for these other measures, it helps explain how Aus 'flattened the curve' early. It isn't only the lockdown intervention which needs to be examined.

We also need to partly exclude/reduce the R0 value for the people who became known covid positives, either before arrival in Aus, or during their 14 day isolation.

*I think the introduction of 'trace and test' at a low initial number of positive cases, is the key reason Australia has kept the numbers low.

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** I should add that the other reason Australia has down well in relative terms is that the number of cases was very low when the initial reduction in r0 occurred as the world watched the drama unfold in Italy. This is clearly luck due to proximity.

so to summarise, the factors responsible for a reduction in r0 include and in chronological order:
1. watching Italy and avoiding people with a fever/cough
2. test and trace
3. isolate/monitor overseas arrivals
4. Social distancing
5. full lockdown/closure of cafes restaurants.

i’m not sure what the r0 or the first 4 measures would have resulted in but maybe a value around 1 or 1.5. The 5th measure causing the majority of the economic impact has probably further reduced it to the current levels ~.5

im cautiously optimistic that a month of all the measures will enable us to revert to ‘just’ the top 4. Then maybe another couple of months of the first 4, eventually moving up to the top 3 (?6months) and then the top 2 in 12-18 months time or once effective treatment/vaccine is available.
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