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unlucky_bacs

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05/04/20

17:12

Post #: 43889994
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Originally posted by Just_a_guy: ↑

** I should add that the other reason Australia has down well in relative terms is that the number of cases was very low when the initial reduction in r0 occurred as the world watched the drama unfold in Italy. This is clearly luck due to proximity.

so to summarise, the factors responsible for a reduction in r0 include and in chronological order:
1. watching Italy and avoiding people with a fever/cough
2. test and trace
3. isolate/monitor overseas arrivals
4. Social distancing
5. full lockdown/closure of cafes restaurants.

i’m not sure what the r0 or the first 4 measures would have resulted in but maybe a value around 1 or 1.5. The 5th measure causing the majority of the economic impact has probably further reduced it to the current levels ~.5

im cautiously optimistic that a month of all the measures will enable us to revert to ‘just’ the top 4. Then maybe another couple of months of the first 4, eventually moving up to the top 3 (?6months) and then the top 2 in 12-18 months time or once effective treatment/vaccine is available.

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no problems
under 100 cases this week
business as usual
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