the added complexity is the lag between the implemented measures/change in behaviour and the effect. I suspect it is about a week.
if I had to take a stab at the mortality rate in the first world with a functioning health system, I’d say it is approximately .2% of the normal population who contract the disease (Bear in mind that the majority of the normal population who contract the disease are younger more mobile people)and about 5% of the cruise ship passenger population who contracted the disease. fatalities occur on average 14 days after contracting the disease. So to me, with 17 cruise ship deaths (sorry I’m not sure of the total number) that would imply 340 Australians on cruise ships were covid positive 14 days ago. and with 17 non cruise deaths, I suspect that the number of Australians with the disease 14 days ago excluding cruise ship passengers was about 8500.
