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madamswer

16,602 Posts.

8106

14/04/20

16:29

Post #: 44036767
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Originally posted by pastperformer ↑

I'm not sure if you intended to construct your post based on the domestic mortality rate, but it seems your view of what the future should or could look like is. There are a few concerns I have with framing the argument in that way, however I broadly agree that as we get more certainty around the scientific data we can design our response in a more measured way.

The main concern I have with your observations is you suggested that Australia's mortality rate is quite low, and extremely low for the under 60's. You quite rightly point out that our experience has been quite different from other countries, however I think you incorrectly land in a position which suggests that we are somehow different. I would suggest our experience is different because of a few possible factors.

1. Longer lead time for crisis and travel response
2. Lower density of population
3. Quicker acceptance of our society towards social distancing
4. Warmer climate
5. Younger population

There could be many more I've missed, but I think it's a common miscalculation to think Covid-19 "Isn't that bad" because it's currently not that bad. If we look at the experience the U.S and U.K is having, it's not hard to imagine how it could be a lot worse here, much the same as people quickly forget why vaccines are important. In the face of and escalating crisis I think your opinion might change a bit (which is what we are currently trying to plan and prevent for). We are all in real danger of exercising social will on governments while the curve flattens under the false security that all is well. There is a real risk that if we take our foot off the brake, things could get a lot worse, and it will be incredibly hard to restore confidence in the population again, at least until there is a vaccine that doesn't cause autism.

I accept the argument that we can have more targeted policy response which can include quarantining the more at risk, as well as a staged essential opening of the economy, but lets not lose sight of how bad this could really be, just because we are in the "Lucky Country".

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"I think you incorrectly land in a position which suggests that we are somehow different. I would suggest our experience is different because of a few possible factors."
1. Longer lead time for crisis and travel response
2. Lower density of population
3. Quicker acceptance of our society towards social distancing
4. Warmer climate
5. Younger population

You are making my argument for me.
Australia is somehow different. Why, you list some of differences.

And I am saying that strategy should be tailored with due consideration for those differences.

.
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