six reasons by baillieu holst, page-38

I'm not sure why you should have giggled s2096914?

Let's have a look at this number $60 000 000 and try and see how realistic it is and what it would take to achieve it.

If AHZ were to sell each patch for $1500 they would have to sell 40 000 patches in FY16 to take in revenue of $60 000 000.

40 000 patches / 3 (which is the average number of patches needed per operation on average) = 13 333 operations.

We know that the company 6-7 months after making its first sale in Europe is now supplying CardioCel patches to 7 of the leading CHD centres in Europe and they are targeting the top 15, they are also targeting the top 15 in the US (as a short term goal.) If by FY16 they have accomplished this aim of 30 centres and are not supplying patches TO ANY OTHER centre aside from these 30……

13 333 operations / 30 centres = 445 patients per centre.

Is this realistic? Yes. In my opinion.

Why?

Admedus has made such a great start to their sales journey that they have raised their targets for uptake of CardioCel (from a short term goal of 10 major centres in the EU and 10 in the US to 15 in the EU and 15 in the US.) Surgeons are obviously very enthusiastic about the technology for the massive competitive advantages it has over competing products. This is not just a claim, it is fact, and the company has 5 years of human trial evidence to prove it.

These major centres are huge and in some instances do 1500 paediatric operations per year. Double that for adult CHD operations so I don't think the figure of 445 patients per centre (if they get the 30) will be too much of a stretch.

Now, in the scenario I have detailed above this is ONLY for CHD. It is very probable by then that surgeons performing vascular and vessel operations in adults will also be utilising CardioCel patches and again we know from the evidence that CardioCel patches perform superbly in these situations as well and are far superior to what is currently on the market. We also know that these operations in scope dwarf the CHD market.