13 333 operations / 30 centres = 445 patients per centre.
"Is this realistic? Yes. In my opinion.
Why?
Admedus has made such a great start to their sales journey that they have raised their targets for uptake of CardioCel (from a short term goal of 10 major centres in the EU and 10 in the US to 15 in the EU and 15 in the US.) Surgeons are obviously very enthusiastic about the technology for the massive competitive advantages it has over competing products. This is not just a claim, it is fact, and the company has 5 years of human trial evidence to prove it.
These major centres are huge and in some instances do 1500 paediatric operations per year. Double that for adult CHD operations so I don't think the figure of 445 patients per centre (if they get the 30) will be too much of a stretch."
Excellent post Stonemason (or should I say Ponzi?)lol.
Great to see some figures on operation stats thrown in there to back up your opinions. I still remain more conservative with mine (which may or may not be to my detriment)and I understand that your research into the nitty gritty of AHZ is far greater than my own.
While I tend to take a conservative financial approach based on what I believe is reasonable given other product roll-outs I have seen (which admittedly is not extensive), your advantage may lie with your discrete knowledge of Admedus and better understanding of what is probable.
Happy to keep holding regardless and enjoying watching the story unfold.
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