size of jpr's discoveries, page-3

At the recent OilBarrel conference, GG suggested that a figure somewhere between the 24.2mmbo of 2Ps confirmed in the last CPR and the 37mmbo of reserves accepted by the Kaz state under the GOST classification was a realistic number. An average of the 2 numbers would give around 31mmbo of 2Ps at Akkar East, which seems conservative bearing in mind that the initial 24.2mmbo was based on just 2 of the 4 wells now on that field.

For me, the additional confirmed net pay at the 3 wells in the extension, together with the overall size of the structure, suggests that these wells will comfortably equal the reserves averaged by the wells on Akkar East, and likely surpass those figures. At a fairly conservative 10mmbo of new 2Ps per well, that’s another 30mmbo of 2Ps in the extension, giving a total including Akkar East of about 60mmbo of 2Ps. I think that’s the sort of number the market might reasonably have been given to expect by JPR.

However, the trick that JPR might be hoping to pull off is perhaps to surprise to the upside of these numbers, along with hopefully some confirmed flowrates at decentish levels from the 3 wells in the extension and also from J53. In the current markets, you get smashed into the weeds if the numbers are to the low side of expectations, and you get precious little attention if the numbers are basically in line with expectations. The only way to really generate attention and to raise JPR’s profile is to exceed the market’s expectations, and I have a hunch that JPR might be seeking to do just that.