1. HEALTH /
2. CORONAVIRUS

Event 201 didn’t predict the Covid-19 pandemic

27 APRIL 2020

“Event 201” was an exercise organised in October 2019 to simulate what might happen if there was a severe pandemic. We’ve been asked by readers to look into whether it really happened , why it wasn’t covered much in the media, and whether it’s simply a coincidence that it took part just months before the Covid-19 pandemic started.

The event was real but the fact it took place just before the pandemic started doesn’t mean the organisers had any secret knowledge, which has been suggested by some.

The organisers said they ran the exercise because the world has seen a “growing number of epidemic events.” Previous similar exercises run by the same organisations and others have not been followed by similar outbreaks.

The specifics of the exercise should not be taken as predictions for the Covid-19 pandemic.

What was the event?

Event 201 was run by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

It invited people from business, government and public health to simulate coordinating a policy response to a theoretical pandemic.

The simulation was based on a coronavirus, but that doesn’t mean the organisers knew about the one that causes Covid-19. The first known cases of Covid-19 weren’t publicly identified until December 2019, although media reports of unpublished data suggest that some early cases may have been infected in November that year.

Coronaviruses are a broad category of viruses which cause a number of different respiratory illnesses. One is the common cold, but the category also includes SARS (the severe acute respiratory syndrome, of which there were outbreaks in 2002 and 2004), and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) in addition to Covid-19.

The organisers said: “The players’ responses to the scenario illuminated the need for cooperation among industry, national governments, key international institutions, and civil society, to avoid the catastrophic consequences that could arise from a large-scale pandemic.”

At the time, Event 201 was not covered widely by the media, but it was covered. In the UK it appears the Telegraph was the only major outlet to report on it.

It doesn’t tell us much about the Covid-19 outbreak

Event 201 took place just a few months before the initial Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. This has led some to say that Event 201 “predicted” the current pandemic.

However, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security has said: “the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise.