Kingrobb, timing has a part to play. We should keep in mind the tremendous effort for such a small player to secure the funding required to build a satellite. It clearly took longer than anticipated to get it over the line. We have now had the US military withdrawal coupled with global resources sector cost cutting (a major client segment). We are committed to the strategy so even if one says management should have anticipated theses events it couldn't possibly have altered the plan. To delay building Jab 1 pending a global upturn in resources/other markets would have been unthinkable.
Contracts are in the pipeline but there is no rush to sign up until demand forces clients to sign or miss out. In the long run satellite demand must increase; the demand for bandwidth and associated communications will continue on its upward trend, we just have to observe the world around us to accept that as a given.
So the problems this year are simple stock market dynamics. Short-term risk has multiplied for NewSat due to revenue reduction. Market's always react this way until there is evidence of revenues growing. Speculators will push a stock like NewSat around and it wouldn't surprise me to see a big jump in SP when the next positive announcement comes out followed by another dip until eventually a sustainable revenue stream is confirmed.
I am not dissimilar to you. I also thought financial closure was the trigger to buy and was taken aback by the profit downgrade followed by the technical breach. On many occasions I have thought about removing risk by selling and keep a close eye to jump back on when I see some sort of evidence suggesting a clear runway. I haven't in the main due to a conviction that it will come right and uncertainty about timing an exit to buy back in. Current price feels like a bottom or bust. Another piece of bad news (loss of funding - no Jab1) would surely be the end, whereas if we are generating EBITDA and the build continues as it is then I can't see another leg down. So why not plow more in? I've already exceeded my risk threshold.
I weigh up the pros and cons and if the cons greatly exceed the pros then sell it is. My pros are in credit. I do think too much is made of the loan to Mr Ballintine, in the scheme of things it is nothing more than an irritation and if the SP was rocketing I dear say it wouldn't be discussed.
Kingrobb, time will tell if it is to your detriment holding on. I hope not, and one day you may look back on this period and say 'gee I'm glad I had the stomach to see it through'. One thing the market has taught me over the years is 'expect the unexpected' and the 'darkest hour is just before dawn'. But also 'don't put all eggs in one basket' and manage risk.
Good luck
NWT Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
