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Hi Viney,
I think we will have to disagree, This thread was started by QuarrySt and he was asking opinions about price to March. I still stand by my original comment where I said the price might stay flat around 33 cents (or head lower).

I note at the time of this post, I am sounding pretty astute.

I am not sure why it is wrong to look at Quarterly Cashflows, but I am happy to look at cash balances as well. At 1 July 2011 they had $87.4M and now they are down to $39.7M at September 2012.

I got into BTU over 12 months ago, as I agreed with the benefit to consolidate the coal fields and increase returns due to the synergies. But let’s not forget that, when they bought the other tenant holders, they didn’t pay a princely ransom nor did the share price do a Nathan Tinkler.

All companies can sell a story, but, when you are in production you have to tell the truth about whether you are making cash (give or take timing of debtor and creditor payments).

This is shown in the first section of the cashflow “Net Operating Cashflow”. The records show, BTU has not been positive in producing coal in any of the quarters since July 2011. Therefore you can assume that until they ramp up they will keep losing money at the current production rates (nothing earth shattering)

Unfortunately Viney , you did not answer my question on whether you are happy with the cash burn.

Personally I am not, because it means that although they have a goal. the way they are spending money, they won’t achieve this goal without raising debt or further equity.

To close this sermon... I did put my money where my mouth was and, decreased my holdings (at 30 cents).

The reason for this is because in the short run there are other stocks that are not facing the same level of risks (court cases or ability to finance ramping of production).

Sometime in Q1 2013, there should be a spike on a successful Court Case. But time will tell, whether it comes from a a lower base, especially if the December Quarter cashflow has been released and had a similar cash burn to September.

I was always told Cash is King

All the best on your trading or investment.