sliding: where to

Now that IRN takeover is dead and Beadell has no cash to buy Cracow, the sp is sliding back down - question is, where to?

Here's my analysis:
29th Feb NTA 1.82 vs. sp of 1.31 - 38% discount
XMJ end Feb 15000 vs. 14200 now - 5% fall
XSO end Feb 3300 vs. 2950 now - 10% fall

31st May NTA 2.09
est. increase in NTA due to higher IRN offer $0.07

38% discount - 1.57
Hence with 10% downside, range should be $1.42 - 1.57

Is my logic correct or am I being too bearish?

Complicating factor is the status and magnitude of the cash return. By my calculations, they will fall just short of the target $267M cash they wanted to return (IRN 124 + ALB 41 + cash 98). It could well attract buyers that want to pick up the cash - particularly if the slide continues - which could prop up the price.

Thoughts?