Now that IRN takeover is dead and Beadell has no cash to buy...

Now that IRN takeover is dead and Beadell has no cash to buy Cracow, the sp is sliding back down - question is, where to?

Here's my analysis:
29th Feb NTA 1.82 vs. sp of 1.31 - 38% discount
XMJ end Feb 15000 vs. 14200 now - 5% fall
XSO end Feb 3300 vs. 2950 now - 10% fall

31st May NTA 2.09
est. increase in NTA due to higher IRN offer $0.07

38% discount - 1.57
Hence with 10% downside, range should be $1.42 - 1.57

Is my logic correct or am I being too bearish?

Complicating factor is the status and magnitude of the cash return. By my calculations, they will fall just short of the target $267M cash they wanted to return (IRN 124 + ALB 41 + cash 98). It could well attract buyers that want to pick up the cash - particularly if the slide continues - which could prop up the price.

Thoughts?