As for the stocks mentioned in this thread:
- SLR, IGR and KCN are going down since their recent price peaks in Oct-Dec 2010 (SLR fell 32%, IGR fell 42%, KCN fell 44%)
- GDO and MML are actually near their peak SP right now
Gold has gone up 12 % from $1370 level in Oct-Dec'10.
So can we draw any conclusions about price of gold stocks in relation to gold price for coming months ?
The above stocks have quite a range of P/E (15..28) but there is no relation of P/E to their recent SP history.
I have noticed interesting phenomenon recently : SP of company XYZ goes gradually down; then there is an upbeat series of presentations of 'FUTURE' fantastic prospects for that company, then SP goes up for a very short time, then SP continues its fall - at times even at faster pace than before those presentations.
SLR is a good company but if its SP falls then be it. And do not try to say : $1.50 will be bottom price. I have seen stocks, of which a few times during their SP fall, I thought that 'this must be a bottom' but then another bottom came in, and another ... So the bottom will be only AFTER the SP starts to go UP in a sustained up trend.
I have sold my SLR stock recently (with loss and regret) because I was alarmed by the PACE of recent price falls and the lack of buying support. I do not know when will I buy back again - it is a kind of a dilemma : risk further SP fall vs potential takeover. But which one is more probable now ? At this stage I decided that takeover is a far call right now.
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