SORRY to go all Greek mythology on you, but the gold sector rather reminds one of poor old Sisyphus.
Just as the legendary king of Corinth was condemned eternally to roll a rock up a hill in Hades only to have it roll down again as it nears the top, so just as soon as Australia gets near to having a viable producer sector, along come predators knocking them off.
Normandy went years ago, then Delta Gold and Goldfields (even though their merger to form Auriongold was meant to prevent such a thing) and there have been plenty since.
Canada's B2Gold is the latest perpetrator, doing a merger deal during the week with CGA Mining (CGX). At least, one might think, the absorption of Integra Mining (IGR) into Silver Lake Resources (SLR) and Allied Gold becoming part of St Barbara (SBM) means ownership stays in Australia. Then you remember Auriongold and think SLR and SBM might have only made themselves even juicier morsels, possibly for the Chinese.
Zijin Mining already has 89 per cent of Norton Gold Fields (NGF) and on Thursday we saw Focus Minerals (FML) surrender 51 per cent control to Shandong Gold for $227.5 million. Focus has four producing goldmines and an existing resource of 4.3 million ounces.
As each gold success story is taken off the board, investors have to go looking for other likely ones for the future.
Deutsche Bank, reporting on its Australian mid-cap gold conference, indicates that investors have a long list of things they need to tick off when looking at gold companies -- valuation appeal, believable production profile, competitive cash costs, low capital options, resource/reserve growth options, and dividends (or at least the potential for them).
Deutsche sees gold at more than $US2000/oz by the first quarter of next year.
Its top picks are Regis Resources (RRL) and Alacer Gold Corp (AQG). With Regis, there is a nine-million ounce resource, the operating Moolart Well mine with the bulk of reserves within 20m of surface, the Garden Well mine which just had its first pour and the recently purchased McPhillamys gold project in NSW. Alacer, meanwhile, has two operating mines in Western Australia and the Copler mine in Turkey.
SLR Price at posting:
$3.57 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
