From memory when the contract was signed with SML, they had agreed on a 12 month rolling forecast, but lead times were 4 months. I could be slightly wrong there. So the forecasts can change from A2M and it would only take 4 months for it impact supply. My guess is the 12 month rolling forecast is conservative because the impact of the Chinese regulatory changes are not clear yet. The forecasts will be adjusted once there is clarity and this will impact this FY's SML forecasts.
In terms of other IF brands SML manufactures, it will not be a low growth for them this year, it will be negative growth. If you look at BAL's results, they had no Chinese label sales from Jan this year as they had no SAMR approvals. So this will be the case for SML's other IF partners. So with my rose coloured glasses, SML's projected IF growth this year will be only from Platinum and this growth will be underestimated from SML's raw numbers as like for like sales have dropped for non-Platinum IF.
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