I completely agree Teddie, Fluorspar could go down in price...

I completely agree Teddie, Fluorspar could go down in price anything is possible... However you also have not factored in a much more likely scenario in a world of deteriorating relationships which it goes much higher than current higher estimates as Geopolitical outcomes are not factored into these estimates.

China has already spent 25billion (more than South Korea, Taiwan, and the US combined) on chipmaking equipment in the first half of the year trying to front run the US restrictions being enforced on Western allies for chipmaking equipment being exported to China. China currently makes only low level chips and are now aiming to make mid and high level chips. Will be interesting to see how fast they catch up.. They going to need a hell of a lot of Fluorspar to develop these mid and high level chips, alongside EV's, and military equipment.

This week China also threatened Japan that they will cut Japan's access to critical minerals if they restrict any further sales or servicing of chipmaking equipment.

Alongside your question of "what could go wrong with demand"

You also should balance this with..

"What could go right for demand"
"Why are Western Governments so worried about critical minerals"
"Why are they critical"