"Smart Money" comes back to Equities, page-52

many are saying that - but, I don't subscribe to it.

IMO - I see 2 possible scenarios

On the half report - either

1. we are going to spike down - because on the surface, which is where DT's and short termers read - loss may increase and liabilities up (sure on the latter) - they won't notice too much in the revenue - depending on how it is written.
Then, after digestion and insto. meetings and the like - the SP will begin to rise as smarter heads interpret the half report.

or

2. Larger potential interests - eg. instos. or high wealth individuals - are waiting for some sort of confirmation in the half - and will see it at a glance - and, possibly, if the figures on the surface look good - or the wording headlines are pos.++ - then, the SP could pull away right off the block.


From that very near term catalyst (only days away) --------- we have a lot about to happen ---------- 1. is obvious - a visit to Australia by at least the President -------------- he isn't coming to see kangaroos.

2. we seem to have a continuing stream of orders and new customers/trials/whatever to keep us interested - I predict that the next newsletter will have some clout.

3. If ------- and, yes, it's an if - we get a business update like last year - I have a feeling that will be very positive.

4. Purely speculation - but, I reckon that Fosters may well do a new report after Dirk visits - perhaps sooner - but, I would think post.

5. Ok - this falls in to your 'miracle' category -- a. expansion on what we have been emailed about today or b. the BIG shortening favourite (already pinged by the canary in the coal mine) - is some sort of wacking great ann. on polymers with a major+++ supplier/manufacturer) - this one - I would place a solid bet on - I just don't know exactly what the prize money is yet though).

6. SP illogical moves ----- this is also a big one ----- you see it time and time and time again- a stock - just starts to move. There appears to be no clear catalyst - and, often it just might be some larger hand beginning to aquire - and, then, that triggers a race - and, it's on - off to the races we go.

I remember well when I was deep into FML - and, the SP was languishing - but, another company was a bloody market darling - and, none of us could see why ---------------- and, a couple of us were very close to the board - and, the board couldn't see why either -------- the business was crap - the potentials crap - but, the SP was off like a bloody greyhound after a hobbled possum - for no reason other than it was just running hard.

Now - for my money -------- AJX has got the goods - and, yes, it is not a 'penny stock' now - but, for what is shaping up - opinion varies mostly (mostly) between - it is cheap and it is good value. There is a splattering of 'it is overvalued' and a splattering of 'it is dirt cheap'.

The reality is - that if about 20% of the potentials come in - then it is indeed a good cheap entry at these prices -- but, if everything falls on it's face - then it is overvalued - but, if most of it comes in - or just 20% of the bigger potentials come in - over what is dry ink already - then, it is a bargain.

Now - in that case ------- a lot depends on who knows what. If the right people get an ear full of Nick on a good day - or Nick and Dirk combined - and, believe what they hear ---------- then, just on that alone - because no one can pinch this stock in a hurry ------- there is theft going on now - but, they have to do it in dribs and drabs - then it is very possible that someone (or a number of clients) - start to push this barrow for position - with apparently no miracles involved.


To be honest - I can see a spike to high 50's in this - maybe 58 ish ------------- but, I can also see an announcment out about a contract - signed and sealed to a major plastic manufacturer - that will leave this current price in the dust - with a doubling of SP on open - and then kicking on from there.

In other words ------------ nothing much will surprise me.

Ok - everything falling flat on it's face would surprise me - I concede. But, otherwise - the writing is clearly on the wall for solid growth at minimum - and, the winds are carrying the smell of big deals not far away - lets be honest here - who would be surprised if we just keep motoring for a while (business wise) like we have been?
But, also - who would be surprised to get a halt or an ann. showing a blockbuster one morning?

Overjoyed - yes, stunned yes -------------- surprised? No.

That's my take on it anyway.

oh, btw - fyi - there were some posters here who have been suspended a fair while back - there was often talk that they were involved in some sort of conspiracy with the sp - what is of interest to me - is that they still watch - most of the time, they only every had anything to do with one stock - us.
Think about that one as our stock continues to have most of it's activity done in little sub min. trades - always probing, always pinging. Worth noting IMO.

have a great day all

Pinto