smart money moving into biotechs, page-23

re: smart money moving into biotechs retro
I agree SB, assessing the p/e you use for bhp is not necessarily simple. The forward p/e is currently based off commodity prices which many say are at the "top of the cycle". But still the forward p/e is arguably low enough right now to be already factoring in decent falls in many commodities in a few years time. For bhp to be expensive you need commodities to start falling soon. Many analysts have oil at around $44 as their forecasts for the next few years. bhp i think gets 25% of revenues from oil and these broker anaylsts have continually forecast the oil price to be about $15-$20 lower than the current price. They have done this consistently since oil surged to $30 a few years ago. They keep getting it wrong and keep revising their forecasts up and up. They will need to do this yet again shortly.
I still think though that to use the historical p/e for bhp right now as an argument to say that the stock is expensive, given that we know when they report in a week or two that this figure will be a hell of a lot lower, does not seem appropriate in my opinion. I would think that most experienced investors would agree with me on this statement. I will let others make up their own minds about mightybulls knowledge and whether they want to follow his advice which is only backed up by the assumpion that he is extremely knowledgable and experienced in market cycles.