smart risk/reward trade off, page-9

I have a differing view, but I can understand what is being said here.

While I flagged Ca Ngu as the target in an earlier post, a number of things just 'clicked' for me:

1. It looks like Ca Ngu was actually what the BHP well was trying to target. BHP went too far south and in doing this they encountered the incised channel that NEN specualtes was the reason for lower oil accumulations. But they wouldnt have known that the peak of Triton Horst was further north (Ca Ngu). In addition they wouldnt have known that the Oligocene layer actually ran deeper and at a steeper gradient down-dip from Ca Ngu. NEN only identified these aspects on the 3D seismic which we know BHP didnt do. These aspects would have been critical to the wells potential. (12Kms between surface holes makes a difference)

2. In the upper layers (Pliocene, Mio-Pliocene) the same anomolies (as in B105) exist, indicating gas. So far this has not been quantified. But from the 3D geobody analysis previously provided it looks to be in the same ball park as Cua lo. Ca Ngu doesnt have the Dongfang analogue to derisk it, but the depositional environment looks the same - fan sands. This is flying under the radar.

3. What has been quantified is the 'oil'. In saying this, it looks like NEN's personnel (Dave Cliff) certified this internally i.e not from an independant like NSAI. This provides for upside risk to the current estimates. 180mmbbls is still big bucks and certainly commercial. But what is more important is that if 180mmbbls is observable then Rua Bien at 611mmbbls is going to become a whole lot more real. Hence, "play finder".