smart risk tolerant money to be made

The most simple way of making money on the market is buying something for a steep discount to its value. Deep discounts of 50% to value where a near term market catalyst to resolve them exists are especially prized. That is exactly where MOG sits - with only a 2 or 3 week wait for its risked value to be realised.

In case this risked value is a mystery to some here it is:
Lowering CoS of Artemis slightly to 30% (simplifies the maths and builds in a 6.67% buffer to valuation - you could just add this to the valuation SP if you like) and taking the p50 12Tcf estimation- the likely find size assuming Artemis hits HC - down a steep notch to p90 of 4Tcf; p50 of 8tcf and p10 of 12tcf you get the following risked valuation:

4tcf 10% = 67mmboe

8tcf 10% = 133mmboe

12tcf 10% = 200mmboe


value in mmbbls = CoS[p90(0.9) + p50(0.5) + p10(0.1)]
= 0.3*[67(.9) + 133(.5) + 200(.1)]
=0.3*146.8
=44mmboe

@ 2bbl = $88m or 30.3c on 290m shares
@ 3bbl = $132m or 45.5c
@ 4bbl = $176m or 60.1c

These are the basic risked values, MOG is currently trading at almost a 50% discount to the lowest $2bbl risked value and almost a 75% discount to the higher $4bbl risked valuation. Now before you say what about if MOG is unsuccessful - the risked valuation already takes account of this. Either MOG will fall to the single digit cents or be in the $s by Christmas but for risk tolerant investors it is currently worth 30-60c.

What this all tells us, other than MOG is a great buy for those of us who are risk tolerant investors, is that there are not currently many of us around in the current market! The old adage of buy when others are fearful and sell once they embrace the risk (ie risk tolerance is higher than the rational risked return dictates) holds here.