Smashed the 200 day MA +14%, page-15

Do not forget the negatives. Negatives are good if they can be fixed. Troy lost 4 days mill capacity and continues to mine more ore than milled as well as waste stripping at Hicks. That means current AISC is higher than it would need to be to just continue the current Smart ore production that is actually milled.

Steady state is probably more like 16.8k at 970.

At current gold prices of 1340 that means A$7.77m per quarter or A$2.6m per month. More than enough for the Investec debt.

Also it is not clear if the Investec debt really needs to be paid off until end of CY2018. Considering Investec having lots of options at 18 cents there might come a time in the second half of the year where it makes sense for Investec to postpone the debt if it help the share price. Considering the options are running out in 2019 Troy has something to negotiate.

Trade creditor debt should still be something like 28m. Over the mid/longer term that needs to get back to 7m. For 2018 14m should be enough.

So for this year 9m + hedges are missing. The big deal is if Troy gets 7m (A$10m for Casposo - 30% discount because of expedited payment) there will be only 2m + hedges missing. And that amount will be very managable in the second half because it is in the interest of Investec to get the share price up or to negotiate with Troy to prolong the options.

So it *should/could* work without a cr. I would very much prefer a cr tipping the balance towards a solid balance sheet (=debt free early 2019). But mid or end of 2018 and not now.

Until then Troy will have drilled Spearpoint and Larken (which looks more like a sure thing but not as close to the mill). Alto Metals will have declared a maiden resource at Sandstone where Troy still holds a 2% royalty. So the potential cr will be done under much different circumstances and will be used to fund the mill extension because the balance sheet will probably not need much fixing then. Seems also 15% won't be utilized.