I hope you are right but might not happen till Nov/Dec, there is...

I hope you are right but might not happen till Nov/Dec, there is no clear shoulder here yet, if it holds around 2.55-2.65 for a few weeks then maybe but with the low volume and NP reversal to 4.95 and back again to 5.05 overnight on weaker USD$/DXY the trend is choppy and unclear yet.

May see some weakness toward that 2.45-2.55 support level, the shorts are really playing this like a fiddle, morning runups to suck in the retailers then selloff the rest of the day into close, same pattern for several days now. A classic shorting false start pattern.

the shorts are in charge and havent used their large volume short held stock yet, if they do may see a sharp selloff or capitulation trade, if they think its going back up again then they will all turn long and a sharp rebound so on this 1 week ledge at 2.63 its best to sit and wait.

That strong reversal in NP overnight may have scared off the shorts plans today but I think their plan is to try to selldown to 2.55/2.45 on NP weakness but more likely they will hold off if NP stays here at 5.05 and WSA stays around 2.63 yet again. The longer it stays around 2.63 with low volume the better for the longs as it means the shorts are not certain of the trend and are holding back for now.