Question - So what do you think we can expect from this well given that high pressure and large pay zones? - Anwser - A lot of variables or unknowns about this well at present to give an accurate guesstimate on total flow (the operator will have all this data). Porosity, permeability, hydrocarbon saturations, longer-term production tests etc are unknown. Given the high pressure that will be due to depth but also gas saturation level, not sure yet if its gas cap or solution gas at present. This reservoir is likely have natural drive and shouldn't require stimulation. Given the extent of the payable sections and the natural and reservoir pressures so high you'll get significant oil and gas shrinkage and therefore you can get more crammed into the same space than at shallower lower pressure reservoir units. Imo the current flow is only scratching the surface of this find. I would like to know the surface area coverage to have an idea. The target was a minimum of 80Bcf or something like that, so they could well have hit something that is decent size.
My interest was sparked here by the Nov release suggesting that if the well was successful significant oil and gas flow would be likely. Well they're already getting almost 600boepd from only one restricted zone so we could have a well that can be brought to production anywhere from 1,500-5,000boepd as a rough estimate at the moment. Certainly I'm expecting much more when the well is perf'd and tested at all zones and when its brought to producing with a more reasonable choke size. All in my opinion etc do your due diligence etc. They should hopefully clarify the expected reserve size and flow potential from the next news release. Hopefully 2,000boepd gross, 500boepd net and 4-5mmboe net to RRL on 25% wi.
Captain Nelson Forties 22nd Dec 2009
RRS Price at posting:
5.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
