Peak has got to have one of the clearest upcoming price catalysts for any ASX stock - the eventual decision from the Tanzanian government to grant the SML. It overwhelms other share price sensitive news for the firm, which is why I'm basing my entry decision entirely on this catalyst. (Of course I like other factors too, primarily the business model compared to peers, but its fair to say thats been covered to death on this forum).
Looking towards this SML decision, I don't think it is likely that they'll receive it until after the election in October. Doesn't sound like a long time, especially compared to the 3 years this application has sat in the cabinet, but the current investor climate is extremely short-term focused given obvious macro conditions and the appetite for junior mining from Aussie investors. Hence I don't have a great degree of confidence in the buoyancy of the SP until this decision.
The re-election of the incumbent President is a mere formality, so there's unlikely to be a significant deviation from the current norm. However, a relaxation of the awful changes to mining regulations in 2017 that made this country impossible to do business in seems to be on the agenda, albeit a much, much smaller focus than infrastructure.
Hoping someone else has more insight on this matter. Unsurprisingly Tanzanian politics is not an area of personal expertise.
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