Don't just beat the market, leave bruisers!

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Patong1

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18/12/24

16:14

Post #: 77107772
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Originally posted by Lies&damnlies: ↑

Hi Patong

I like your chart on Joby. It's a pretty good example of a flash rise

I like looking at these sort of charts and see how my exit strategy would play out if I was a holder. Only fools don't have and exit strategy taking something off the table during these events. It can be either a partial or full exit, but that depends on your tax situation. Certainly at least recovering your initial investment would be my absolute bottom line.

My exit strategy is base on "let it ride". I then wait for the first significant pull back in a short period to form a low. Has to be at least 16% but greater than that has more significance. Then when the next rise starts set my sell order just before the 50% bounce FIB of the decline. I call these Flash DCB.

So here is how I would have played it as a holder.

31 Oct closing price was 4.80. Then we saw a building phase to 6.20 back to roughly the highs achieved earlier this year. Good gain over that building phase

The flash rise begins 21 Nov. Some snapshot dates from 6.20 close.
Day 2 Close 7.09 a good gain in 2 days
Day 4 Close 7.93 with a minor pullback along the way
Day 6 Hits the eventual peak 9.33
Day 7 opens 9.30 and closes at 7.93 (substantial slide)
Day 8 Hits a low of 7.44 9.33 to 7.44 a 1.89 decline, which is a 20% decline in 2 days which qualifies as my strong pullback.
Day 9 closes at 8.12 so my flash DCB begins. I would set my sell order at just before the 50% FIB bounce of the decline so I would chose. 8.45
Day 12 the SP peak is 9.14 which is higher than the 78% bounce FIB. My sell order was done in the days earlier.

Sometimes these Flash DCB don't reach the 61% FIB and sometimes only touch the 50 % for only for the briefest of moments. I am cautious because after these Flash DCB, things get very bearish and you can look a fool by missing the trade by getting too greedy.

Not a bad result from a starting point of the Flash rise of 6.20 to exit at 8.45.

Lets see were Joby ends up in a couple of months.

Yesterday I posted about TSLA flash rise getting to 4.60 and overnight it reached 4.83. So it is still running.

When the SMN approval from the FAA finally arrives I am expecting some form of flash rise. If and only if it goes crazy, then I will let it ride, then look for that strong significant decline with the following flash DCB to partially sell into.

That crazy flash rise is very dependant on just how many FOMO fools arrive at short notice.

Just my strategy and people should DYOR

cheers Lies

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Don't just beat the market, leave bruisers!

SMN Price at posting: 44.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 37.5¢		Change 0.010(2.74%)		Mkt cap ! $57.90M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
38.0¢	38.5¢	36.5¢	$22.90K	60.41K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	33882	36.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
37.5¢	24536	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	33882	0.360
1	20000	0.355
4	16000	0.350
2	22000	0.345
1	30000	0.310

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.375	24536	1
0.390	16792	1
0.400	17548	2
0.410	80000	1
0.420	2548	1

Last trade - 15.47pm 25/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

SMN (ASX) Chart

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