Hi FolksHope you had an enjoyable Christmas with friends and...

Hi Folks

Hope you had an enjoyable Christmas with friends and family.

Thought I would take a look at the weekly SMN chart. With no news about Boeing submission to the FAA arriving before the end of the year, it's not a great chart. It's understandable.

The 10WMA has crossed below the 40WMA, which is a bearish signal. As well the MACD has been negative for a couple of months.

It can turn around with that submission news. Further delays will likely weaken the SP further as it sets back the timeline to FAA approval.

News of that submission can turn that current trend around, but Boeing have proved to be unreliable in the past. I have absolutely no idea as to how long before we have that news.

Earlier I discussed looking at flash rises and used OCC as an example. I included a second chart of OCC below.

The two companies have similarities. Small number of shares on issue SMN 150m and OCC 240m, OCC before the flash rise had similar MCAP.

The Singapore market approval news was closely followed up just this month with the first revenue in Singapore. They have an a nerve repair product with proven results enabling significant restoration of movement to previously unusable limbs. It had been approved and in used in Australia and NZ, but Singapore was a major breakthrough. Hence the flash rise which is still proceeding. Also with the background pressure of possible approval by the FDA for use in the US with a prospective approval in Mar-Apr. Sure there can be further delays? But.

I liken the Boeing submission for SMN to the FAA in the same category as OCC Singapore announcement. Although I don't expect SMN mini flash rise to be as significant, but towards the 70-80s wouldn't be a surprise. We were in the 70's earlier this year.

We have the FAA approval and they have the FDA approval Still pending.

I am expecting the OCC to eventually run out of steam and experience a profit taking pullback. that's normal market behaviour. I expect some form of pullback after the Boeing submission news fades with SMN.

In an earlier post I was discussing a flash rise on SMN FAA full approval with some readers. They doubted the ability of SMN to market APB CVM's to the various airlines, So I did some digging.

In a recent investor presentation it was stated. That with the FAA approval the following would occur.

* Delta would pay for the 45 737's with units already installed and operating. $2M.

Delta have another 30 737-800 to be fitted in a similar manner. So about another $1,3m. Delta have another 163 737-900ER aircraft (ER signifies extended range, with extra fuel tanks in the cargo hold) which with their assistance will need to again go through the same approval procedure. That's why they get a discount as each step forward requires their input. I suspect this approval period should be shorter.

* the conclusion of negotiations with United airlines with 146 qualifying aircraft. Note the word conclusion. So a reasonably quick follow-up of this news following the FAA approval news seem entirely feasible.

* Commencement of negotiations with South-West (255) , American (75) and other airlines for 737-800's

So not surprised by a rise into the 70's with the Boeing submission news, also not surprised on the FAA approval news at 1,20-1,30's and if quickly followed up by news of Delta's $2m payment and the fitout of another 30 of their aircraft, coupled with the news of the conclusion of negotiations with United for 146 aircraft that 1.60's does not seem a bridge to far.

Some more food for thought Delta, have another 112 757-200's and 757-300's. Also 111 767 300 & 400ER. Approval for both of these will be required but what sort a market does that open up with other airlines.

I did some back of the envelope calculations of the income potential generated by United 146 aircraft in its conclusion negotiation phases. Delta have been critical in the whole process. They are paying us $2m for 45 already fitted aircraft, In my approximations they are receiving a 50% discount on market price.

So the United fitout could bring in a further $13m. I am ignoring licencing fee's (if there are going to be any),

So the two announcements in reasonably close proximity brings in a further $16m which is about half again of what AEM brings in.

Just my thoughts, so DYOR

cheers Lies