Sheesh! That's a lot of typing.
Good extrapolation, Lockstock.
I posted about 6 months ago the following:
View attachment 1037509
We worked from similar information, but I took what I perceived to be extremely conservative figures to give the lowest possible outcome ... and mine don't include sensor sales or AEM contributions. So. I guess that means that somewhere between your numbers and mine will lie the actual value of the company in the end. (you went in Lock, stock
and barrel!)
I too have a concern (as expressed by others) that at some point there will be a takeover bid which will be hard to stop. I am (errr .... was) a holder of Aconex, with an average price of just over $3, looking to a fantastic future of long term dividends, when they were swallowed up by Oracle for $7.80.
Am I happy? No.
A great Aussie company, beating the world with a huge future, swallowed up by an American monolith because they were having the crap beaten out of them by a superior product. So we get a short term gain ... and a long term loss.
I honestly hope we don't see it with SMN, but I fear that the quantum of prospective profit will be too juicy, and the short term view of large holders too strong to avoid a sellout when the offer comes. Too much stuff happens behind the scenes, and too much manipulation occurs in the stock for me to be anything other than pessimistic regarding this.
My hope is that there are a lot of retail buyers at these prices, and that most hold their shares as the stock starts to rerate - making it difficult for a t/o to succeed. I also hope that funds like WAM, AFI and ARGO, that love high fully franked dividends get on board and hold ... that sort of institutional holding would give a more solid grip on the longer term future of the company.
I can but hope ....
