SMR Capex to OCF

I've done my own amateur deepdive for SMR over the past month or so after getting excited by the veritable cash printing machine that is SWC. Hopefully the BHP and Teck freeze on new projects, the current attitude to new Canadian mines and australian permitting challenges, South african rail, grid and water challenges (Lesotho pipe maintenance) and the Russian floods and logistical challenges (80% yoy decline through one of the main eastern ports)put a floor on PCI prices (currently a 40% discount to PLVHCC!!). I thought I'd raise a discussion in regards to what everyone's thoughts are about the Capex outlay going forward, I reckon we'd all like a notion of how much potential dividend may come our way.

My dart throw with Capex going forward is $420M for 2024 (150 on Eagle Downs inc acquisition and updated integrated Dfs, the 270 on Poitrel and Swc outlined previously by management), $450M for 2025 (400 on ED, especially degassing if S32/aquila had let that slide, 50 on beginning a mill expansion at Poitrel), $800M for 2026 (250 to finish ED, 250 to finish expanding Poitrel mill to 12mtpa Rom feed, 150 to start issac u/g). This is all based off of trying to estimate necessary replacement of issac downs by 2029 (begins winding down to end of mine in 2031), filling Poitrel mill with ED HCU seam, replacing Poitrel mine with ED Dysart (Poitrel winding down beginning 2030, end of mine 2033). Other projects I see as necessary are bringing ED Dysart longwall online in roughly 2031, ED Q seam online in 2030, Mavis Downs u/g switch to Millenium Downs U/g by 2029 and issac plains u/g switch to issac south beginning in 2034. (This company has so many moving pieces!! trying to model how to fill the mills while not having excess has been tricky)