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16.5¢ sundance energy australia limited

Yepp I can't bring myself to buy anymore (as I definitely have...

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tt2000

4,684 Posts.

1231

18/05/20

19:20

Post #: 44687659
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

Its a timing thing isn't it.

1P Reserves volume goes up ... a consequence of drilling and then developing the PUDs to PDP.
IP $value goes down ... from Dec to Apr and then recovering now a bit ... but BB redetermination done on price deck (Apr'20) of probably the lows? Causes issues for what reserves are economic (and possibly lowers the volumes) and certainly lowers the value of the cash flow.

So right now, no further drawdown available on BB. How much curtailment is there? What are their off-take arrangements?

If it we me (as a rational risk averse investor) I would be wary of buying on this report. There are a number of trap doors where one could easily fall through. Got to have more certainty on:

1,2,3: Borrowing Base redetermination and any covenant relief
4. Capex Plan timing
5. Curtailments & Production plan
6. Any hedging impacts

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Yepp I can't bring myself to buy anymore (as I definitely have optimism bias), but think it is an excellent value proposition now.

I think we could have the same type of night Lone / PVAC had when they jumped 60%...

SEA Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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